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Author: Admin | 2025-04-28
In today’s on-chain analysis, BeInCrypto looks at the indicators of BTC supply in profit and loss in the hands of short- and long-term holders. It turns out that the majority of circulating coins are seeing a loss today, and the indicators are in the bottom areas of historical bear markets.Losses and gains of BTC coins can be divided according to the length of time investors hold them. In on-chain analysis, the threshold between short-term and long-term holders is assumed to be 155 days. If the coins have not moved during this time, the statistical probability of their movement (sale) strongly decreases. They become coins in the hands of long-term holders (LTHs).If, on the other hand, the coins move (are bought or sold) in less than 155 days, they are statistically more likely to move further. Therefore, they are considered coins in the hands of short-term holders (STHs).Bags of long-term holders and Nov 2021 ATH According to data from Glassnode, currently, the total supply in the hands of long-term holders has reached the new all-time high (ATH) of 13.62 million BTC. The previous ATH of this indicator was set in Nov 2021, at a time when Bitcoin was hitting its ATH of $69,000.Source: TwitterIt is worth noting that the fact that long-term holders held their coins at the BTC price, which later turned out to be the peak, is highly unusual. In all previous market cycles – including the $64,850 top in April 2021 – the path to the BTC price peak has always been associated with a decline in supply in the hands of LTHs.A decline in LTH supply is naturally correlated with an increase in supply in the hands of STHs. During a bull market, long-term holders who bought BTC at a lower price in the past sell their coins to short-term buyers. In contrast, during a bear market, STHs capitulate and mostly resell their coins at a loss to LTHs. Bitcoin’s supply returns to the hands of long-term holders again.However, the ATH of the Bitcoin price in November 2021 had a different course. Long-term holders – convinced that BTC will soon reach higher prices – chose not to sell their coins. At the same time, there were no new STHs on the market who were willing to buy. Bitcoin began a downswing that continues to this day, and most LTHs were left with their bags. They had to
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