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Author: Admin | 2025-04-28
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action in early 2025 has left investors uncertain, with February marked by a month-long consolidation. The market, which initially expected an aggressive breakout at the start of the year, is now weighing the possibility of an impending bear phase.However, long-term technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price cycles suggests that BTC remains on track to reach a new all-time high of $200,000, as observed by TradingShot in his recent analysis on TradingView. Despite short-term weakness, historical cycle patterns indicate that BTC’s broader trajectory remains bullish. Picks for you Bitcoin’s market cycle points to further upsideA closer look at Bitcoin’s historical price patterns reveals that each bull cycle follows a structured parabolic trajectory, albeit with diminishing volatility as the asset matures.BTC price analysis chart. Source: TradingShot/TradingViewThe Mayer Multiple (MM) trend, a key technical indicator measuring price deviations from historical norms, shows that BTC has recently dipped below the MM 1 Standard Deviation (1SD) above—a level that, in past cycles, was maintained for longer before significant trend reversals.Despite this short-term weakness, a broader analysis of Bitcoin’s parabolic growth trajectory indicates that BTC’s cycles are becoming less aggressive over time. The first few cycles saw BTC exceed MM 3SD above, whereas the 2021 bull run only reached MM 2SD above. This indicates a more tempered but still substantial upside trajectory for the current cycle.Bitcoin’s bull cycle timing and potential price targetBitcoin’s historical cycles have consistently spanned 1,064 days (152 weeks) from the bear market bottom to the peak, suggesting a potential cycle top around October 6, 2025. While BTC may not reach the MM 2SD above as in previous cycles due to diminishing volatility, its current trajectory still points toward a possible $200,000 price target by year-end.Adding to this optimism, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory despite recent market uncertainty. I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year.We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025He observed that even if BTC corrects 30% from a new all-time high, falling to $77,000, this would not necessarily indicate the start of a bear market. Instead, such a pullback would be a normal retracement within a larger bullish phase, keeping BTC well above its previous cycle’s all-time high.BTC price analysisAt press time, Bitcoin is trading at $94,775, down 1.45% for the week, as economic uncertainty and trade tensions weigh on market sentiment.BTC seven-day price chart. Source: FinboldInstitutional demand also appears to be waning, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $540 million in net outflows last week, adding to concerns over weakening investor interest. Despite these short-term headwinds, analysts remain optimistic, pointing to historical cycles that support a potential rally toward new highs.Featured image via Shutterstock
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